Has the demise of print advertising hit its tipping point?

Tue, November 25, 2008

Here's some morning trivia for your commute this week - pick up the NY Times this Wednesday and see if you can count how many active Broadway shows are no longer listed in the ABC listings. I won't even try to give you the answer - because I don't know the exact number - but what I can say is that some Broadway shows have decided to pull out of the ABC's on weekdays and, furthermore, I think we may now be seeing a serious tipping point towards the demise of print advertising in the theatrical space. Some will argue the tipping point has already occurred and others will completely disagree with me saying that, for now, print isn't going anywhere, but it's clear as day that there has been a shift in attitude by many in the theatrical industry towards the prospect of advertising in print - particularly the NY Times. To me, it's all very worrisome on many fronts.

While I've been a very big critic of the use of print advertising (particularly the rates of the NY Times), we have and continue to see significant research showing quite clearly that the tried and true theatregoer does read the NY Times.

The notion that "nobody reads the paper anymore" simply is not true - what is true is that the number of people and the frequency and the way they read the paper has changed. With consumers having less time, less disposable income and more abundant, timelier, free content available online to them, daily newspapers are being forced to rethink their business strategies if they expect to survive over time.

Now, I know the Times knows this and I've been very impressed with how progressive they have been in rolling out an impressive website (NYTimes.com) along with an industry-leading presence on mobile devices. So, as an organization, they have put an infrastructure in place to create and distribute their content in ways that can better match rapidly changing consumer preferences. So, long term, that's the good news.

But, short term, what concerns me the most is that when print revenue declines (rather plummets), where will the lost revenue be made up? In the short term, it won't be made up. When you consider they have already cut back resources in their editorial coverage, shrunk the actual size of the newspaper, are facing a rapidly slumping economy and are now at risk of losing an additional base of revenue like the ABC's which were the ‘no brainer’ choice at one point - it's a disastrous storm waiting to happen.

Despite your feelings on the New York Times, as an industry, we and our audiences rely on their editorial and I hope we can find a way to keep a lasting relationship with them. Let's face it - a great review by Big Ben draws big wraps - not guaranteed big wraps - but, clearly a major bump if the production being reviewed targets the traditional theatergoer (particularly plays). In addition, they spend the most resources towards covering the industry and bringing theatre coverage to audiences across the globe.

I don't buy print advertising so I may be talking out of school here - but, here we go. Times, you have to accept that your readership has changed and adjust your rates accordingly immediately. In the online world, we pay by impression - so, if readership goes down, we pay less - print should be no different and despite what some research/auditing services say, common sense clearly shows readership and engagement in print has dropped - so should the rates.

As an agency, we expect to continue to work closely with the Times and expect our investment in them to rise significantly over time in the digital space but I can say that from my perspective, if they start raising already high rates online to compensate for lost print revenue, we will be forced to find alternatives as well.

I have ZERO interest in reading AMNY for my daily read on the train and consider myself a big fan of the New York Times editorial coverage and the fantastic team that sells us the actual advertising - so please figure it out before a tipping point that can't be disputed kicks in. Once confidence really gets shaken, it’s often impossible to recover and I personally believe that further losses in New York theatre coverage will be a very bad thing for the industry.

Read what the markets are saying which isn't pretty.